Ever since the beginning of the universe, exponential growth has occurred among everything that exists. After the big bang, it would take billions of years for heavy elements such as carbon and oxygen to first form! Then over millions of years the planets, stars, and galaxies would form. Think about the history of Earth. It took three eons for the Earth to be suitable for life. We are currently in the fourth eon, called the Phanerozoic Eon. The Phanerozoic Eon is divided up into three eras. We are in the third era, called the Cenozoic Era. Each of the three eras has been shorter than the previous era. The Paleozoic Era was about 300 million years long. The Mesozoic Era lasted 185 million years. We are now in the Cenozoic Era, which has so far lasted 65 million years, believe it or not! As you should be able to see by now, it takes less and less time for changes to occur. Below is a sample Geologic Time Scale to help you better understand the exponential change of the Earth over time.
Now consider the exponential growth of the human race in this chart below.
The world population has been growing faster and faster! The big question is, does it ever stop? Will the human race ever come to an end? Or will technology continue to advance forever?It is most likely that humans will eventually die out, but when? There are two definite boundaries to the human race. Boundary number one is the edge of the universe. There has to be a point in which humans can no longer expand. In a four dimensional universe, there must be limits! It is somewhat like a massive box. Eventually, unless the box can be broken, there will be no more room to expand once the box is filled. However, the universe is a little bit larger than the box that your pop tarts come from. In fact, the universe is more like a balloon, because it is expanding. So, one of two scenarios could take place. One, the universe could expand forever, allowing the exponential growth of the human race to be unlimited and continue on, never overtaking the size of the universe. Two, the universe could stop expanding at one point and become static, allowing humans to catch up to its size. Three, the universe could not only stop growing but start contracting, bringing absolute destruction of mankind, for I don't think all of those humans will fit in a microscopic area and survive!
I believe that it really does not matter which of the three possibilities you think will occur. Being the pessimist that I am, I think that humans will bring extermination upon themselves, or they will be destroyed in some other way. Look at the history of the Earth as an example. Over the process of evolution, many species have died out over the course of time! If that did not occur, the dinosaurs would still be around! Notice that species evolve and change over time or in some cases are completely eliminated from existence. There are three possible ways the human race could end up over time. One, humans will be wiped out by natural phenomena. Two, humans will be wiped out by humans. Three, humans will survive and live on until the end of time (if it ends). Also, there are two ways to view humans in their role on Earth. For one, they could be the ultimate living species, and life cannot evolve further past the human stage. The other idea is that humans will evolve into or give way to another greater, stronger, smarter specie that is superior to humanity!
Of all of the given possibilities, I think that humans are the prime race. We will bring about the end to all life on Earth forever, because we have that capability. The only way that life will continue on after us would be through alien life. Here is how I see the future unfold. We will destroy all other forms of life, leaving only humans. Humans will fight and advance in technology until eventually we will have developed such destructive weapons that not even those who have created them are safe in any way. I know that I sound like a pessimist, but I don't think the outlook on the future looks good.
Think about this possibility put forward by Dr. Hawking: genetic engineering of humans. We could someday create a super-human race that would replace ourselves. In that case, humans would somewhat evolve, but at the hands of the human race. Once again, self-extermination. We would make ourselves obsolete by creating smarter, faster, stronger super-humans! Then exponential growth would increase even more!
Another idea of Dr. Hawking's is that computers could be created with intelligence just like humans! Therefore, robots could start to build better robots, who would proceed to build better robots, until electronic intelligence overtakes human intelligence! With all of these possibilities, it is hard to see a limit! I think there is a limit, though. Nothing is truly infinite. There is a finite quantity of everything in some way in my opinion. Therefore, I believe that humans will exterminate themselves, and either super-humans or super computers will take over, but they will eventually destroy themselves too, if they are anything like humans. But who are we to judge that?
---Firstly, I don't see computers taking over the world. They need an input and objective to work; they can't have as many goals as we do. Also, humans can appear differently to certain people. Computers have no flaws. If they were given the opportunity to redesign the world (assuming the human-made program was flawless and accounted for all the variables, highly unlikely) they would realize how futile everything on earth is. Think about it: ideal machines are physically impossible, all life ends in death, and our thoughts are so easily swayed by a persuasive series of ink dots. "Intelligent" computers would realize how hopeless and inefficient humans are and eliminate us, because we would be a waste of time and resources. Although, they probably couldn't completely annihilate the species because, yet again, they don't think like we do.
ReplyDelete---Even if they did manage to wipe out the human race, computers couldn't keep themselves together in a society. They're just chunks of plastic and silicon; there's no need for them to do anything but sit there, turned off. If humans didn't exist, the computers wouldn't have goals and problems to solve, so they would realize it's more efficient to stay permanently turned off. There wouldn't be a society of computers because they exist only to carry out tasks. Without tasks to perform, there's no need to unite.
---I do, however, agree with your ideas about the engineering of superhumans. Beginning with the vaccine, we have been trying for centuries to make humans invincible or at least more powerful and unaging. The flu vaccine, anti-aging skin care, medicine, vitamin supplements, gym classes- they're all trying to make us immortal. Humans are naturally afraid of death, so we try to procrastinate it by making ourselves better. We've succeeded, to a point. The average life expectancy has increased steadily for decades. Genetic engineering is certainly inevitable, the only question is how far it will go how quickly.
---Superhumans are a plausible prospect and desirable, unless you're a non-modified human. I like what Dan said before, about making ourselves obsolete. Which new superhumans would want their children growing up with the children of those who can't pay for modifications and hence have ugly, unintelligent children who would be perfectly acceptable in our society, but not theirs? They would destroy the nonsuperhumans because, yet again, we are weak mortals who drain their resources and can only contribute menial labor.
---Then we ask, would the superhumans destroy each other? There will always be some chafing, even if it's only between two people in a society of perfection. (Think of the book "The Giver" by Lois Lowry.)There will always be trouble because we're humans. But would they completely wipe each other out? No. Maybe they would kill off all but the most capable, maybe they would set a one child per household rule, but they wouldn't exterminate their own species. There would be wars between them, sure, but it's no different than the wars we have now. Even though we slaughter, we have no intention of ending our own species. (Which is kind of counterintuitive, and the reason I don't like the war, but that's beside the point.)
---I guess I agree that the future doesn't look very eco-happy and humans will probably dominate the earth. Computers, although they will become a critical part of our lives, won't take over, and genetically improved superhumans will take over and put us in ghettos or worse. This scares me because a genetic cure for say, cancer, is just a step away from an injection to bolster our immune system and render germs obsolete. And after that, it's a spiral staircase (or slippery slide, depending on your point of view) to virtual immortality. A thought: would you choose to become a genetic superhuman?
The idea with intelligent computers would be that it could have human qualities minus the imperfections. Computers cannot catch a cold, become tired, or think in cruel ways unless we design them to. The idea would be to design the perfect computerized human-like mind that could respond to its environment and make more versions of itself, hopefully without human idiocy. These computers would then replace life as the ultimate being, even though it is not considered "living".
ReplyDeleteThe idea that computers would not have goals could be easily fixed. Simply input a goal to make more of itself and to build a utopia that is designed by humanity. This is all artificial in the end, so that is why I think humans will go along the genetic engineering route rather than computers. Humans are naturally selfish in my opinion, and would rather make themselves invincible than make other beings that are invincible.
If I could choose to be "average" human or superhuman, I would have to pick being a superhuman. Who doesn't wish that they never got sick? I am in the middle of suffering from the common cold right now! However, I would only choose to be superhuman if there were going to be a great many others. I would not want to be the only superhuman in the world because I would end up in the limelight all the time, which would annoy me. Also, if there were a lot of super humans, I would not want to be a normal human because I would end up becoming obsolete and likely exterminated.
I agree that our future is not very bright. But I think that humans aren't smart enough to make superhumans or self functioning robots. We will however destroy ourselves in the process of trying. We may distroy other major species as well, making major advances in evolution to those that survive so that they can distroy themselves too! :)
ReplyDeleteAlso, supposing that we can make superhumans, I imagine that there will be no way for them to die other than self-destruction, major astrological collision, and simple old age. Therefore there would be serious overpopulation issues resulting in self-distruction.
As for the robots, I believe there is a part of the brain that scientists are completely clueless about. Especially since they admit to their infathomability. This is the portion inwhich we wish to be accepted and therefore format are ideas of success,aka Goals. We cannot replicate what we can't understand and so the robots would have no purpose in their society. Making them would e completely pointless.
All right, this is my big spill on the outcome of the future, and you probably won't like it. I think humans will use genetic engineering to create super-humans before we destroy ourselves. Here is what I have been recently thinking. In war, there is usually a winner and a whiner (loser). I think that although humans are extremely stupid, there is usually a goal. Let's say that Russia decides to go to nuclear war against the USA. Since Russia is bigger, they have more places to run to. If they launch an all out nuclear assault, and we return fire, they will probably win. Hooray for Communism! (I'm being sarcastic. For your information I am very anti-communist). This makes the United Nations mad, so they all gang up on Russia. Russia calls up their communist buddies China, North Korea, Iran, Japan, and other close friends. It's a full scale world war. Bombs fly everywhere, and most likely The communists will win, because they have more workforce. However, it won't be Russia who survives, but China. The Chinese then proceed to take over the world! Great! Now the Chinese can stop making weapons (everyone else is eliminated) and start working on genetic engineering. Why? Because as a communist nation, you want the most output possible requiring the least input possible! super-humans then become prominent.
ReplyDeleteWhat happens after that I cannot predict. The super-humans can be easily brainwashed with trust in their government. In fact, humans may never destroy themselves if it ends like this. It will be peaceful, which is what we always wanted anyway! At this point the people will be pretty much government robot slaves! Brainless workers controlled by the power hungry government. Well, that is my prediction of the future. I think if there was a contest for most pessimistic blog comment I would win first prize. Wait, I wouldn't win, because this ending is paradise for the communist judges of the contest! Oh well.